Naked FPL

Naked FPL Data Lab

Data and Strategy Laid Bare

Glossary

Naked FPL Data Lab language for player cards, fixtures, process stats, and creator calls. Insights come from Model Score, Value Edge, and xMins. They are not content BUY/SELL calls and not Creator Calls bubbles.

Core metrics

The three numbers behind every player-card Insight.

Model Score

Position-aware composite of process rates. Within-position percentiles are reliability-shrunk by minutes, then display-scaled for the card. Higher is stronger process quality for that position.

Value Edge

Model Score versus current price within position. Positive means the player looks underpriced for the model; negative means you pay a premium. Players with under 90 current-season minutes are left blank.

xMins

Expected minutes for the next gameweek (0–90). Locked starters sit near 75–90; rotation risks sit lower. Insights use this as minutes security.

Insight

One process tag built from Model Score, Value Edge, and xMins. Green is positive, white is caution or neutral, red is negative or too early. Insights are not the same as content BUY/SELL calls or Creator Calls.

Insights

Green tags are positive, white tags are caution or neutral, red tags are negative or too early to judge.

Must-own

High Model Score, fair or better Value Edge, and locked minutes. Strong all-round profile — a priority squad piece.

Value gem

Strong Model Score with a clearly positive Value Edge and solid minutes. Quality that looks underpriced relative to the model.

Budget enabler

Solid (not elite) Model Score, strong Value Edge, and locked minutes. A cheapish starter who frees budget for premiums elsewhere.

Elite premium

Elite Model Score and locked minutes, but a mildly negative Value Edge. Worth owning for quality — you pay a premium for it.

Minutes watch

Strong Model Score and good Value Edge, but minutes look fragile. Track the role before treating as nailed.

Overpriced starter

Locked minutes and a good/strong Model Score, but a poor Value Edge. Template-tax starter — reliable, expensive for the output.

Rotation trap

Decent Model Score and/or Value Edge on paper, but xMins say not nailed. Looks attractive until the benchings start.

Hold

Decent Model Score, fair price, and okay minutes. No urgent transfer action from these three metrics alone.

Sell candidate

Weakening Model Score with a negative Value Edge and soft minutes. Funds are working poorly — consider moving the money.

Avoid

Weak Model Score and/or bad Value Edge with poor minutes security. Low process appeal on the core trio of metrics.

Too early

Model Score exists, but there is not enough current-season sample for a reliable Value Edge yet. Wait for more minutes before judging.

How to read a card

Where each figure on the Data Lab player card comes from.

Relevant stats

On the player card: last-3 arithmetic mean of per-90 process rates. This is the figure to quote for goals prevented, saves, VAEP, xAG, SCA, and the other card process rates.

Form / Stats Lab last-3

Stats Lab and advanced-metrics tables use a last-3 EMA (exponential moving average). Do not quote that EMA as if it were the card Relevant stats mean.

Header xG / xA

Season FPL totals shown in the card header — not the last-3 Relevant stats window.

Radial dial

Relative bars for the card’s Relevant stats versus the current catalog cohort. Length shows standing in the pool, not an absolute 0–100 quality score.

Shotmap

Recent shot locations and quality for the player. Complements the rate stats; it is not a Model Score input by itself.

Price / ownership

Current FPL price and selected-by percentage on the card header.

Fixture difficulty

FDR colours on cards, heatmaps, and Creator Calls fixture chips.

FDR 1

Very easy fixture for the subject team.

FDR 2

Easy fixture.

FDR 3

Average fixture.

FDR 4

Difficult fixture.

FDR 5

Very difficult fixture.

Next-5 / outlook

Mean difficulty of the next five gameweeks for a team or player card, with an Easy / Hard style outlook. Blank gameweeks cut occupancy and soften the run.

Blank / DGW

A blank removes a fixture in that gameweek. Double gameweeks add fixtures. Both change next-5 occupancy and planning tilt.

Process metrics

Per-90 rates used in Model Score and shown as Relevant stats by position.

VAEP total

Valuing Actions by Estimating Probabilities (all on-ball actions).

VAEP offensive

Offensive VAEP — chance-creating and finishing value of actions.

Expected Threat (xT)

Expected Threat from progressive ball movement.

Expected goals (xG)

Shot quality attributed to the player.

xAG

Raw PitchAPI expected assisted goals. Sparse weeks use xag_filled (PitchAPI → FBref → Understat → FPL expected_assists) for chance creation.

Chance creation

Per-row xag_filled rate: PitchAPI xAG when present, else FBref xAG, Understat xA, or FPL expected_assists (see xag_source).

Shot-creating actions

Actions leading directly to a shot.

Goal-creating actions

Actions leading directly to a goal.

xG chain

Team xG of possessions the player was involved in.

xG buildup

xG chain excluding the shot and the key pass / assist.

Progressive passes

Passes that advance the ball toward goal by a meaningful distance.

Progressive carries

Carries that advance the ball toward goal by a meaningful distance.

Key passes

Passes that lead directly to a shot.

Touches in opposition box

Touches inside the opponent penalty area.

Goals prevented

Saves above expected goals on target faced (GK).

Saves

Goalkeeper saves per 90.

Accurate passes

Completed passes (GK distribution).

Defensive actions

PitchAPI defensive action count (tackles, interceptions, etc.).

Aerials won

Aerial duels won.

Recoveries

Loose-ball recoveries.

Defensive contribution

Official FPL DefCon / CBIT from GW-live.

Creator Calls

Caption-summary language. Separate from Insights and from content BUY/SELL chips.

Buy

Creators naming the player as a transfer in or strong buy for the window.

Sell

Creators naming the player as a sale or move away.

Watch

Creators flagging the player to monitor without a firm buy or sell.

Captain

Creators naming the player for the armband (or as a named captain option).

Bench

Creators planning to sit the player for the gameweek.

Total

Sum of buy, sell, watch, captain, and bench mentions for that player.

Creator Calls

YouTube caption summary for a gameweek window. Bubble counts are creator handles, not Model Score Insights. Each refresh is stamped VYYYYMMDD and kept in the Creator Calls archive.